Two Months into 2025: Are Plane Crashes Really On the Rise?
Everyone is telling you everything. Let’s cut through the noise, break down the numbers, and focus on what actually matters for your safety.
We’ve gotten through the first two months of 2025, and you probably think that the number of plane crashes in the United States is way up. Are they? Well, it depends on how you measure things. The headlines and snippets you hear on the news or social media — or even from me — may not be super clear to you.
Let’s look at some events and information being fed to you, along with examination of some words, sources, and data. From there, maybe we can understand the different ways that information is presented, and then frame it on our own in a way to help you understand the current state of aircraft accidents in the United States.
The Stats That Actually Matter
Guy: “Did you see that F-18 go down by North Island? I don’t know about getting on a plane any time soon.”
Me: “What, do you have a flight booked on a fighter jet sometime soon or something?”
This is a very paraphrased version of an actual conversation I had at the gym recently. My response was a bit sarcastic, as I have rapport with him, but I know that he’s referring to what he’s been seeing on the news for the last couple of months. However, this conversation highlights a more important issue: what we should focus on to get an accurate picture of aviation safety.
When I discuss safety and share statistics, I form those statistics based on my audience (that’s you!), which is usually the traveling public in the United States. I try to keep in mind the places that people I’m talking to may be going, or on the aircraft types they may be using.
When you’re nervous about flying, I want to focus on your flying.
The Misleading Influencer
On social media, people are making videos saying that there have already been 80 or 120 plane crashes so far this year. The truth is that they are seeing some stats, don’t know what they mean, and then trying to scare you for views and clicks.
The statistics they’re using are based on NTSB aviation investigations, not just crashes or accidents. Those numbers include general aviation (non-airline) accidents, as well as broad safety incidents and occurrences. Also, some investigations involve incidents in other countries if an American company or US-built aircraft is involved.*
So, their claims might include incidents like someone accidentally taxiing a small airplane into the mud and damaging their wing. The pilot likely reacted with frustration by getting out and throwing their ball cap to the ground, just like you might if you accidentally parallel park your car into a fire hydrant. It should not be included in the stats you receive to make you understand if you’re safe when you fly to see grandma in Florida next week.
On the flip side, if someone were to measure by NTSB investigations, the numbers actually show a different story than they are presenting anyway; NTSB investigations are DOWN 16% from this same period last year, and DOWN 30% from the previous year.
Breaking Video!
Turning on the news can also be very misleading. Some events may look scary, but they are often more of an inconvenience than an emergency. In many cases, they actually showcase the safety process working as intended to prevent something worse from happening.
Aircraft engine failures or fires, evacuations due to concerns of smoke, air traffic “close calls,” and even simple “go arounds” are all typically manageable or common events that we have seen on the news. With incredibly rare exception, they almost always result in everyone being just fine—sometimes completely unaware that anything was happening at all to begin with. Still, these events are presented with dramatic footage that keeps viewers glued to the screen.*
Many of the incidents making headlines lately are routine events that typically wouldn’t receive national attention. They are making the news these days because of the microscope that the aviation industry is under since the DC midair collision. Also, events caught on video are much more appealing to draw coverage.*
I personally believe that, if not for the DC accident, the only event this year that would have made national headlines would have been the regional jet crash in Toronto. And yet, everyone on that aircraft survived. As I’ve pointed out [LINK], even when things go wrong, people usually walk away just fine.
So what is relevant?
No matter how you cut a peanut butter sandwich, someone will complain (diagonal-cutters are obviously sociopaths). At the end of the day, people just want to know: how safe is flying for me? Bluntly put, you want reassurance—backed by facts—that you’re not going to die when you board a plane.
For that reason, even though I’m very passionate about discussing the lessons and stories from accidents in general aviation, military, and cargo operations, they shouldn’t really factor into the safety statistics that matter to you when boarding a commercial flight. For that reason, let’s focus only on “commercial passenger airline fatalities.”
Here is a straight list of airline passenger flights that had fatalities within the United States over the last 20 years.
2025: Bering Air Flight 445 – Norton Sound, AK (9/9 passengers)
2025: PSA Flight 5342 – Washington, DC (60/60 passengers)
2019: PenAir Flight 3296 – Amaknak Island, AK (1/39 passengers)
2018: Southwest Airlines Flight 1380 (1/144 passengers)
2013: Asiana Flight 214 – San Francisco, CA (3/291 passengers)
2009: Colgan Air Flight 3407 – Buffalo, NY (45/45 passengers)
2006: Comair Flight 5191 – Lexington, KY (47/47 passengers)
In that time, over 180 million commercial flights have operated in the U.S.—only seven involved fatalities. Across those seven flights, 161 people lost their lives out of 635 on board.
Data on the Chopping Block
For argument’s sake, let’s say you feel that some of those incidents aren’t relevant to your specific type of travel. Maybe you want to be picky and slice this up even more.
Think 20 years is too long to count as “recent” safety stats? Fine, let’s make it 15 years. That removes two from the list.
Though important, is Alaska too far from your typical travel area? That would remove two more from the list (but, please go to Alaska. It’s gorgeous, safe, and it will be one of the greatest travel experiences of your life).
Prefer to only count jets and not propeller-driven aircraft for some reason? That would remove 3 of them.
Want to exclude non-U.S. airlines? There goes another.
Only interested in accidents where the plane actually crashed? That removes one more.
By all of that picky logic, if you really narrowed it down, you’re left with just one event: the recent DC accident. So if you said “In the mainland US, there has been only one fatal passenger airline crash by a US airline in the last 15 years,” you would be technically correct. But is that a fair, thorough, or useful statistic? Probably not.
Ultimately, how you “cut your peanut butter sandwich” is up to you. But of all the scary headlines you’ve seen in the news lately, very, very few are actually relevant to you—or to any real risk you face when flying. Most weren’t very serious events to begin with.
So Where Do We Stand?
No matter how you slice it, the DC midair collision was the deadliest plane crash we’ve seen in a very long time. Crashes and incidents do happen, but they are overwhelmingly survivable.
In the last decade, more than 8 billion passengers—equal to the entire world’s population—have flown through the U.S. airline industry. Of them, 74 lost their lives. That’s 74 too many—but also incredible odds.
Each day, more than 25,000 airline flights zoom across the skies over the US. Multiply that by weeks, months, and years between fatal accidents.
What we’ve seen this year isn’t a sign of declining safety. The industry’s track record is so strong that even one fatal accident feels like a massive spike from our usual baseline of zero.
I hope that understanding all of the above helps you cut through the noise and see what’s really happening: a heightened awareness after a rare and truly awful January 29th.
Know that you are still safe when you fly. Countless people are applying hard lessons from aviation’s long past, working tirelessly to keep it that way.
See you in the skies.
*Paragraphs with asterisks reference topics that will be expanded on in other articles. Stay tuned.
If you have a question about aviation, my career, or a story request, please email me at phildernerjr@gmail.com.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely my own and do not represent the positions of my employer or any affiliated organizations. This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional advice.
Thank you for compiling this information and writing a great article.
Thanks for writing this article. It does help put things in perspective.